NWT wildfire risk to increase this summer, forecast suggests

Federal officials say the 2024 wildfire season has been relatively quiet but multiple regions, including the Northwest Territories, will face elevated risk this summer.

The number of fires that have burned across Canada so far is “well below average” for this time of year, federal emergency preparedness minister Harjit Sajjan said during a Wednesday press conference.

The latest national wildfire situation report states as of June 5, a total of 1,388 wildfires had burned 469,078 hectares across the country. That’s compared to a 10-year average of 1,724 wildfires and 608,733 hectares burned.

However, Sajjan said several regions remain at high risk for wildfires due to a combination of hot, dry and windy conditions, and that risk is expected to increase.

Key areas of concern include northeastern British Columbia, northern Alberta, south-central NWT and northern Quebec, Sajjan said.

Jonathan Wilkinson, the federal energy and natural resources minister, said the forecast for June shifts the expected area of highest risk from BC to the prairie provinces and most of the NWT. He said there will be higher-than-normal fire risk across much of Canada this month.

By July, the minister said, federal meteorologists forecast fire activity is possible from Yukon across to Quebec. He said the area likely to have the most intense risk is from northeastern British Columbia across the NWT and the Prairies.

“Unfortunately, this forecasting continues what has become an alarming but an all too predictable trend,” Wilkinson said.

“Climate forecasts indicate that the coming summer months will likely be warmer than normal in most of Canada, with parts of the country seeing less rainfall than normal.”

According to NWT Fire, 28 wildfires have so far burned more than 21,600 hectares in the territory this year. Of those fires, 11 are actively burning, eight of which are classified as out of control.

On June 12 last year, the territory had 14 active fires and more than 400,000 hectares had burned.