The challenge of gathering statistics in the North

Earlier this year, the Angus Reid Institute published a report on the views of Canadians affected by wildfires and smoke. While the opening line highlighted Yellowknife’s recent evacuation, no polling data from the territories was included.

It’s not unusual for the territories to be left out of Canada-wide polls or statistical reports.

In some cases, like the Angus Reid wildfire report, that’s due to the territories’ small populations relative to the provinces. Statisticians say there are other challenges when collecting and presenting data on the North.

Shachi Kurl is president of the Angus Reid Institute, a non-profit that researches public opinion on Canadian issues.

Kurl said while the organization collects data in every part of the country, it’s difficult to get a representative sample in rural and remote areas with small populations. That means there can be gaps when reporting public opinion.

“There are always going to be limits,” she said.

“Most polling does not rely on talking to everyone, it talks to a proportion or a sample of the population, and there’s no doubt that does create limits for the territories and for northern communities.”

Christopher Penney is director at the Centre for Indigenous Statistics and Partnerships Division with Statistics Canada.

He explained the small number of people living in the territories means statisticians have to survey a much larger proportion of the population, compared to provinces like BC and Ontario, to get a representative sample. That can mean conducting multiple surveys throughout the year.

“We know that presents challenges,” he said. “When we knock on the same door or call the same number multiple times, we know that person gets progressively less likely to complete a survey.”

He added that when there’s a smaller sample size, there is more variability in the data, making it more difficult to interpret.

For example, speaking to Cabin Radio about the NWT’s 2019 crime rate, an analyst at Statistics Canada said the territory’s relatively small population means a small increase in the actual number of crimes results in a huge increase in the crime rate. Rates are calculated per 100,000 people, while the NWT’s population is less than half that size.

Penney said when Statistics Canada is not completely confident in data, the agency either doesn’t use it or finds ways to ensure the information is accurate. He pointed to unemployment rates in the territories, where Statistics Canada uses three-month averages to address this.

Penney said surveys in small and remote communities are also more costly and logistically challenging. In some communities, he said, people may not have reliable mailing addresses, or may face limited internet access or language barriers.

Richard Jenkins is vice president of research and chief methodologist at Abacus Data, a Canadian polling and market research company. He said there are ways to address data gaps in the North, but most are expensive. Options include phone and internet surveys or hiring local people, he said.

“Data is key for organizations to make better decisions,” Jenkins said.

“I think it’s really important that we continue to build ways to be able to engage people who live in the North in surveys, so that their voice is heard.”

Kurl, at Angus Reid, said while representative polls in the territories are possible, challenges like high costs mean governments largely take on that work.

“Changes in technology and also just a growing Canadian population may alleviate some of those issues in the future,” she said.

Penney said Statistics Canada has worked to overcome the barriers of collecting data in the North. Pointing to the 2022 Indigenous Peoples Survey, he said the agency developed an Inuit hiring strategy, created materials in Indigenous languages and did community outreach.

He said Statistics Canada also partners with territorial bureaus of statistics and Indigenous groups to use data that has already been collected, to ensure it has access to secure, consistent sources of information without creating an additional burden on respondents.

The NWT Bureau of Statistics, for example, is responsible for collecting, analyzing and publishing statistics required by the territorial government, such as community population estimates.

“We do … look constantly to try to innovate in ways to get as good data as possible,” Penney said.