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Tuktoyaktuk residents should expect “moderate storm surge” beginning late Sunday morning, Environment and Climate Change Canada says.
In advisories issued on Saturday morning, the federal agency said an area stretching west from Letty Harbour (above Paulatuk), past Tuktoyaktuk and along the entirety of Yukon’s Arctic coast should anticipate large waves and higher-than-normal water levels.
The Yukon coast is already being affected. The NWT coastline near Tuk is expected to be affected for most of Sunday afternoon before conditions ease on Sunday evening.
“Flooding is possible along the coastline. Coastal erosion is possible in vulnerable areas. Be prepared for higher-than-usual water levels accompanied with waves or stronger currents,” ECCC stated.
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“People close to the coastline should stay on the lookout for worsening conditions.”
Sustained winds approaching 70 km/h to 80 km/h are expected offshore in the Arctic Ocean above the coastline on Saturday night and into Sunday, according to some forecasts.
Storm surge and coastal erosion are major concerns in Tuktoyaktuk, where erosion in recent years has already forced the relocation of multiple homes and is considered an existential longer-term threat to the community.
Saturday’s warning is one of the first since Environment and Climate Change Canada launched a project to upgrade its ability to deliver Arctic storm surge warnings.
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“Climate change has underscored the fact that the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and the impacts of coastal flooding are expected to increase,” Matt Loney, a senior program meteorologist for the federal agency, told Cabin Radio in 2022.
ECC’s upgrades were designed to allow five-day storm surge forecasts for all of Canada’s coasts by this summer, expanding a program that previously focused on the Atlantic Ocean.
As the ice-free period each summer increases, so does the ability of storms to develop over open water, raising the risk of storm surge and large waves reaching the coast.
At the time, Loney said the upgrade was needed “because of the increased intensity of storms but also, particularly for the Arctic, the expected loss of sea ice will exacerbate the problem. And global sea level rise, of course.”
Meanwhile, Tuktoykatuk has spent years upgrading its own climate monitoring.
Arctic Inspiration Prize money from 2021 helped to create a program that monitors air, water, erosion and landscape change. Tuktoyaktuk Island, for example, now has six monitors for erosion in place.
