NWT needs better models, more staff to fight fires, review finds

A review of how the Northwest Territories fought 2023’s wildfires places better fire modelling, more firefighters, more training and better coordination at its heart.

The review, released on Wednesday, makes 25 recommendations for immediate action and identifies 17 more areas for longer-term improvement.

Carried out by consultants MNP, the review is the first of two major reports due this year. A broader review of how wildfires and evacuations were handled by all GNWT agencies is expected by Christmas. This one focuses on how the Department of Environment and Climate Change fought the fires and managed its firefighters.

Environment minister Jay Macdonald said the review was “a crucial step.”

Examining the Hay River-Enterprise fire and Behchokǫ̀-Yellowknife fires as case studies, MNP found an “overall lack of situational awareness” meant some areas were given evacuation orders just two hours before a wildfire rolled in. (Communities are generally reliant on NWT Fire for guidance on when to evacuate.)

In Yellowknife, “the rapid shift from announcing the city is not under threat to ordering a full evacuation within just five days indicates a significant underestimation regarding the situation and potential wildfire behaviour,” MNP stated. At one point, the messaging went from the city being “OK” to issuing an evacuation notice within 24 hours.

While the NWT government’s wildland firefighter staffing is fine for an average year, it should be reviewed in light of what the territory has now seen an extreme year can do, MNP said.

Meanwhile, the reviewers found “there is a critical need for more comprehensive medium to long-range wildfire behaviour forecasts.”

“There were some issues in both familiarity and use of fire behaviour models and fire growth models. It really relates to training and inexperience,” said MNP’s Todd Nash at a briefing for reporters. Nash said the GNWT had demonstrated it was working to improve this, and the GNWT said it was using “nationally accepted” models.

The Enterprise fire, which destroyed up to 90 percent of the hamlet, is an example of where better modelling was really needed, MNP said.

“There were significant gaps in wildfire behaviour predictive modelling, particularly for medium to long-term projections” regarding that fire, the review states. The fire travelled at an unprecedented speed across the South Slave on August 13, slamming into Enterprise and imperilling Hay River and Fort Smith residents trying to flee by road to Alberta.

“Improved forecasting could have helped better understand the wildfire’s potential to change direction and approach Enterprise and Hay River. This would have allowed for more proactive evacuation preparations,” the review continues.

“As an example, Fort Smith residents were evacuated to Hay River on August 12 and then subsequently evacuated out of Hay River the next day. A longer-term outlook may have avoided these difficulties and unnecessary duplication.”

Mike Gravel, the NWT’s director of forest management, said only two people were trained to run one type of wildfire modelling software last summer and they had multiple other jobs. The GNWT is now focusing on other models where more people are trained to use them.

“The challenge with models is they are only as good as the data that goes into them,” Gravel added.

“Last year, we didn’t have sufficient data in all cases for the models to spit out a predictable outcome. In the case of the Enterprise fire, the models didn’t show the fire doing what it did … there was no anticipation of 90 km/h winds, so the model didn’t have 90 km/h winds in it. One of the shortfalls on our end is ensuring we have sufficient data to support the model predictions.”

As an example, Gravel said the NWT has one of the lowest densities of weather stations across the country, but is increasing the number of them available each year. Some weather stations that only operated seasonally in the summer are being run year-round where possible.

He said the GNWT is working to improve its “fuel data” – data on trees and vegetation across the territory – with the help of national agencies. Knowing what fuel is available to a fire plays a “critical role” in understanding what it will do, he said.

“It’s not a quick fix,” said Gravel. “Each year, the information improves.”

More crews, more training

The theme of training and capacity returned in terms of who is available to fight the fires.

MNP said the number of available firefighters in the NWT has declined for the past three decades. More than 400 firefighters and 75 technical positions were imported from other jurisdictions to help last summer. People came out of retirement to make up the numbers.

While normally the territory has enough firefighters, MNP concluded: “The impacts of climate change, including the prevalence and frequency of extreme weather events, raise questions about what constitutes an average year and if baseline resourcing should better consider the extreme years.”

Reviewers recommended bringing on two more crews of around 20 people each in future years, as standard.

Training also needs to be upgraded with that in mind, MNP stated.

“The first wildfire of the season occurred before the earliest scheduled training session was completed, which resulted in untrained crews being deployed and previously trained crews being pulled from active duty – this affected fire suppression effectiveness and safety,” the report states.

“ECC faced challenges with understaffing, inadequate skills tracking, and reliance on retired personnel who may not meet current fitness standards or be up to date with modern fire science.”

Generally, ECC was able to find enough aircraft for aerial support but sometimes had to send inadequate aircraft mismatched for the task. There were some shortages of critical equipment on the ground and challenges tracking down equipment.

The mental health of firefighters and associated personnel also needs more attention, MNP found – both at the time and now, a year on.

Noting that only 40 percent of fires had individual after-action reviews – when in theory, all fires should have them – MNP stated that some of its workshops with firefighters were “the first time many formally discussed the 2023 season and its impacts.”

“Many workshop and interview participants shared the belief that they suffered post-traumatic stress disorder from the events of 2023,” MNP added. One participants was quoted as saying: “We haven’t had a chance to celebrate the season. We also haven’t had a chance to cry.”

In a document responding to this concern, the GNWT said it “recognizes the importance of mental health support for all emergency response staff across the GNWT.” The territory’s response suggested it considers its existing employee and family assistance program, available by phone at any time, to be adequate alongside “additional targeted supports … provided as appropriate.”

Minister Macdonald, though – a former firefighter – said in a Wednesday press conference he “absolutely” believed mental health supports should grow.

“I’ve had conversations with the department, with the deputy minister and with many staff about the need for support around mental health,” he said.

Overall, Macdonald said the GNWT had taken “decisive action” to bring on crews earlier, invest more money in firesmart initiatives and add more aircraft to its fleet.

“It is vital that the public trusts our government’s ability to manage wildfires effectively, and we want to assure you we are taking the recommendations of this review seriously,” the minister said.

Confusion and a lack of clarity

MNP’s other recommendations included improving coordination between governments and ensuring more people have the right training for the command systems used during emergencies, noting that sometimes chains of command broke down.

For example, the review found “the lack of shared definitions around essential workers and to whom an evacuation order applies created confusion, tension, and delays in wildfire response efforts.”

Even before fires arrived, “roles and responsibilities for fire prevention and community protection projects were found to lack clarity.”

“One of the important takeaways is that this was an exceptional year in terms of weather conditions and fire behaviour. These exceptional conditions were experienced across Canada, which might have been a first nationally,” said MNP’s Nash.

“The backdrop to all of this is that programs and systems were stressed, and it’s important that we learn what we can from the experience and make some recommendations and adjustments to improve going forward.”

More: Read the MNP review and GNWT response in full

“We broadly accept the recommendations,” said Erin Kelly, ECC’s deputy minister.

“Some of the recommendations we have to look into from a cost perspective, and we may choose to look at implementing them in different ways than was recommended.”

“We only received the report a short while ago ourselves,” said director of forest management Gravel.

“We’ll obviously have to spend more time working with our teams to identify how we’ll execute the recommendations.

“Many of the recommendations that are in the report are things we are doing or have already initiated. So I don’t think it’s a wholesale change of operations, by any means.”