Why is this NWT flu season so bad? And are we through the worst?

The NWT is recording more than twice as many flu cases this winter as it did this time last year – and that’s just the people who get tested.

Officials say it’s likely many more people are getting sick for days at a time but simply recovering without going near a hospital or getting tested.

Meanwhile, Yellowknife’s hospital is warning people to expect longer waits for treatment. Nurses reported at least one “code gridlock” over the past week, meaning no free beds and a consequent backlog in areas like the emergency room.

Why are things so bad this winter, and can we expect it to get worse or better in the weeks ahead?

More: Longer Stanton wait times, few beds as flu season hits NWT hard

We put those questions and more to Dr André Corriveau, the territory’s acting chief public health officer.

He says the prevalent strain of flu this year harks back to the H1N1 strain of 2009, which triggered a pandemic that year. H1N1 is back and has been making headlines in Alberta, which Dr Corriveau says is always a sign of trouble for the NWT.

Meanwhile, the territory has struggled at times to get vaccinations to people who asked for them this winter, and its fall vaccination campaign started slightly later – though not by much – than is usually the case in some communities.

Below, read our full interview to learn more about the situation right now and what you can expect next.

This interview was recorded on January 5, 2023. The transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.

Ollie Williams: It seems like this flu season is really hitting quite hard. What do we know about how bad this flu season is in the NWT?

Dr André Corriveau: Well, first, I have to caution you that our numbers really just show the tip of the iceberg, because it’s really the sicker people – those who do end up in hospital or in an emergency room or in a clinic – that get tested. The others? Most people, I would think, they will get a moderate illness and even if it keeps them on their back for a few days, they’ll stay home and they won’t get tested.

At this point in the season, we’re probably at least twice as high as last year in terms of numbers. And it seems to be hitting hard pretty much across the country.

So this is something that we’re seeing elsewhere, too?

Yes. It’s not unique to the Northwest Territories. Our patterns often follow those in Alberta because we’re so tightly connected to the province. So it’s usually a good indication: when things start to flare up in Alberta, we can predict that it’s going to be coming up here within a short time.

I think just-about everybody in the NWT this winter knows somebody who has had flu, or thinks they had flu. I certainly feel as though I’ve had it so far this winter. Are we in the worst of it right now? Are we through the worst of it? Or is there still a lot to go here? Have we got any sense of that?

Well, first of all, we’re talking about influenza A, which is the dominant respiratory virus right now. So we seem to be reaching a peak with regard to that particular virus. But, you know, throughout the winter, we get waves of different respiratory viruses, whether it’s RSV or another wave of Covid at some point. And then influenza often makes a comeback – a different type of influenza because we have different strains, like there’s influenza type B, which often comes later in the winter.

So we’re not through the challenges but, with regard to this wave, yeah, we do seem to have reached a peak in the last couple of weeks. And we could expect some levelling off, but we’re not over the challenges of respiratory virus season.

We, of course, have to live with the reality that Covid-19 is part of the same wave now that we experience each fall and into winter. What kind of role is Covid playing in the NWT right now?

Actually, it’s a very low level at this point. But we know there’s a new strain that has touched many parts of the United States already, and I think it’s a matter of time before we get another wave of Covid this year as well. Although right now, our numbers show that it’s probably the lowest of the three, with RSV being in between. Those are the three viruses for which we can get testing done quite easily. Of course, there are other types of cold viruses, but those are the main three that we track.

Do we have any sense of why this winter is so bad, particularly for influenza? Is it because people are not getting vaccinated? Is it just a particularly dangerous variant of the virus? What’s going on?

Well, you know, it does fluctuate a lot from year to year and viruses do evolve, so this year might be a stronger strain. It’s actually a derivative of the pandemic of 2009, with H1N1. It’s the same virus that has continued to hang around and evolve. That’s part of the natural cycle. This year, it does seem to be hitting hard.

We don’t have optimal immunization levels as well. That certainly plays a factor in terms of people ending up in the hospital. If you’re in the vulnerable category, then this would be a more risky time, for sure.

Speaking of immunization, the advice, of course from healthcare officials right now is to get vaccinated if you haven’t been already. I want to add a question onto that for you, though: if I’ve already had the flu, should I go get vaccinated anyway? I think there are probably hundreds of people in the NWT who fall into that category.

Well, we still recommend it, even if you think you’ve had it.

First of all, the vaccine protects against three strains of influenza. As I mentioned, we often see another wave of influenza later in the winter, usually after March or around the time of March break when there’s a lot of travel. And it’s usually a different strain than the first one that hit us. So it does afford some protection against the other strains that might come up later.

And especially if you travel abroad – the worst time to be sick is when you’re away from home. When people are travelling, especially out of country, it’s a good idea to be as up-to-date as you can be with regard to vaccine-preventable diseases.