No sign of NWT’s record low water levels changing any time soon

Experts say southern areas of the Northwest Territories need multiple months of “significant” rain to end the current drought, and there’s no sign of that coming.

A summary of May data released this week shows Great Slave Lake is still at its lowest level on record for this time of year – an extraordinary distance below the previous low marker.

Hydrologists have said the reason is simple: it’s a drought. Not enough rain or snow has fallen in recent years and this is the consequence. (They say dams in southern Canada are not a contributing factor. If anything, recently the reverse has been true.)

Quoting federal data, GNWT hydrologists said this week that the forecast for June, July and August expects “lower than normal” rain over the Mackenzie River basin, particularly in the southern NWT and northern BC and Alberta, where the drought is already acute.

Analysis suggests “there will not be an improvement to the dry conditions for the northern prairies and NWT” by August, the GNWT concludes.

Low water on Great Slave Lake, the Hay River and the Mackenzie River is getting in the way of everything from vital resupply shipments and ferries to the staging of jet boat races.

Already, residents in some communities have expressed concern about what will happen if the same conditions last into the summer of 2025.

“Water levels and flow rates on many lakes and rivers across the NWT remain very low and in some cases are the lowest ever recorded for this time of year,” read the GNWT’s latest summary, issued this week.

“The low water levels are the result of multi-year drought conditions. There have been extremely hot and dry conditions that began during the summer of 2022, persisted throughout 2023, and have extended into 2024.”

The Slave River is the major tributary to Great Slave Lake. Flow rates on that river are at their lowest ever for this time of year, which is also the case along many stretches of the Mackenzie River.

“All other gauged tributaries to Great Slave Lake are either well below average or at their lowest recorded value for this time of year,” the GNWT added.

Around Yellowknife, Prelude Lake and Prosperous Lake are near their lowest recorded water levels for this time of year but are no longer quite in record territory.

Water level on Great Bear Lake is near its lowest recorded value for this time of year, while the exception continues to be some areas of the Beaufort Delta, where high winter snowpack and significant May rain have kept water levels well above average.

That doesn’t apply to the Mackenzie River as it reaches the delta, though.

A discharge chart for the Mackenzie at Arctic Red River shows a dramatic drop in late May and early June, reaching a record low for the time of year.

Lawrence Norbert, watching river ice push through the region in late May, called it “one really weird breakup.”

“The Arctic Red River pushed into the Mackenzie – even with a mild current, it broke a lead,” Norbert wrote.

“My Uncle George never seen something like that during ice breakup. Usually it’s the other way around.”