Where are we at with the NWT’s water levels?

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For more than a year, the Northwest Territories has watched water levels plunge to unprecedented lows on key lakes and rivers – and stay there.

The NWT government just released its October update on the situation. So, is there any sign of change?

For the most part, no, the latest water monitoring bulletin states – but the graphs and charts suggest the picture has improved in some places.

Let’s start with the bad news: overall, there is no sign of water levels rebounding significantly and no sign of enough precipitation to change that.

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Water that’s unusually low is a problem because it interrupts things like barge resupply and ferry operations, can change habitat, and can affect life on the land.

“Water levels and flow rates remain very low across most of the NWT. There have been no significant changes across gauged rivers and lakes, and at most locations water levels and flow rates have started to decrease as fall freeze-up approaches,” the GNWT’s hydrologists report.

“Great Slave Lake remains at its lowest water level recorded for this time of year and is lower than last year at this time,” the report adds.

Flow rates are well below average on the Hay River, below normal on the Liard River, and either at or near their lowest recorded value for this time of year “at most locations on the Mackenzie River.”

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What did the summer weather do?

Not a lot. The drought that began in 2022 has continued, meaning not enough rain or snow is falling to make a difference.

“Cumulative precipitation for the spring and summer of 2024 was well below average for NWT communities, apart from Inuvik,” the GNWT’s report states. In September, rainfall was below average in Norman Wells, Hay River, Fort Simpson and Inuvik. (Up till now, Inuvik had been bucking the trend, receiving much more precipitation than is ordinarily the case).

September’s temperatures across the NWT were much warmer than average, the GNWT noted.

In northern BC and Alberta, which contribute water to the Mackenzie River basin, rainfall was “approximately average” over the summer.

“Average precipitation has not been enough to overcome the extreme drought and soil moisture deficit. Several months of above average precipitation is needed to raise water levels,” the report states.

The filling of BC’s Site C dam, which sits on the Peace River, is ongoing. The GNWT has said it expects that to have a “relatively minor impact” compared to the drought, and no data was given in this month’s report.

The GNWT says it’s expecting “near to above-normal precipitation” for the next few months, but any above-normal precipitation is expected in northern regions of the territory, which weren’t faring so badly in the first place.

That suggests the current situation will drag on into 2025.

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Is there any good news?

The summary contained in October’s report doesn’t contain many shafts of light, but the data for individual sites does suggest improvements in some places.

More: Read the GNWT’s October summary in full

According to the GNWT, exceptions to the rule regarding low water right now include some small Beaufort Delta basins, the Arctic Red River, Lockhart River, Coppermine River and South Nahanni River.

Further down in the report, many charts show water levels that haven’t improved much this year but also haven’t kept cratering the way they did in 2023. For example, the water level in Yellowknife Bay has for the most part stabilized, even if that means it has stabilized at a record low, as shown by the dark blue line in the following graph.

A GNWT graph shows the water level on Yellowknife Bay over time. Dark blue is this year so far, light blue is last year.

The same is true in Hay River.

Great Slave Lake’s water level at Hay River.

Around Yellowknife, water levels on Prosperous Lake and Prelude Lake have popped back up to a level that still isn’t average, but represents an improvement.