Sahtu heading for ‘same disastrous low water,’ MLA fears

Water levels in the Northwest Territories are not recovering fast enough to prevent a second straight collapse of the summer barge resupply season, the Sahtu’s MLA believes.

Barge deliveries are ordinarily crucial to small Sahtu communities that sit on the Mackenzie River. Last summer, the river’s record low level meant no barges could travel.

Costs spiked in the Sahtu in the ensuing months as residents and companies turned to air freight instead.

The territorial government has been using the winter road season – which is due to end in the next two weeks – to send as many supplies as possible into the Sahtu in case barges are ruled out again this summer.

“The winter snowfall has not been at levels we had hoped. I fear the Sahtu will suffer the same disastrous low water levels,” the region’s MLA, Danny McNeely, told the legislature last week.

“What happens if we cannot complete all scheduled deliveries before the winter road closes? What happens if water levels this summer prevent barges from reaching our communities? Airlift of fuel and goods last year was not a plan – it was a last resort, which came with astronomical costs.”

McNeely wants the territorial government to publish a “detailed contingency plan” outlining what it will do if the barges cannot run.

“The people of the Sahtu deserve more than reactive crisis management,” he said.

“They deserve a government that plans ahead, that recognizes the unique challenges of northern transportation and works proactively to ensure the Sahtu communities have reliable, affordable access to essential supplies.”

Addressing questions about this summer’s barge resupply plans earlier in the week, infrastructure minister Caroline Wawzonek said her government was “still hopeful” that 2025 will turn out to be less disruptive than 2024.

Wawzonek said discussions with the NWT government’s hydrologists suggest “the word’s not final yet that the situation is unnavigable.”

“We’re keeping an eye on things,” the minister said. “We’ve made plans to go in whichever direction we need to and, as with the last couple years, we’ll be able to respond once the water levels are more clear.”

The season so far

Generally, the territory’s hydrologists wait each year until spring break-up is well under way before issuing any confident determination of how a summer might look.

The size of the winter snowpack and how that snow consequently melts are big factors in how a summer might unfold on any given river. Spring precipitation can also have a large influence.

Even so, the starting point for many parts of the NWT is not great.

A water monitoring bulletin issued by hydrologists last week showed that while some rivers and lakes are reporting a modest recovery from years of drought, others are not.

“Mackenzie River water level, recorded at several stations along the river, is well below average for this time of year,” that bulletin stated.

With the exception of Fort Smith, cumulative winter precipitation (rain and snow) across the territory has been below average, the bulletin reported. Precipitation in northern Alberta and northern BC has been average.

There continue to be hints of good news in the monthly bulletins, even as the broader picture changes only very slowly.

For example, this month’s bulletin suggests that while most of the NWT can expect “near-normal precipitation” between now and the end of May, southern portions of the territory – which are among the hardest-hit by the drought – may see above-average precipitation.

Meanwhile, the water levels of Great Slave Lake and some rivers are starting to edge back toward normality.

The Slave River has exhibited signs of recovery. The Peel River’s water level is average for the time of year, the South Nahanni River is above average, and the Snare, Lockhart, Hoarfrost and Tazin rivers are all in good health.

But in the Sahtu, Great Bear Lake remains at its lowest water level on record for the time of year. Flow rates on the Great Bear River are well below normal.

The absence of barges last year led to economic difficulties that ultimately invited government intervention several times and triggered local states of emergency in Norman Wells.

In the hope of avoiding huge financial costs this summer and fall, the territorial government says it has focused on the winter road season as a means of sending fuel and other supplies to last a whole year if need be.

Wawzonek said this month that Marine Transportation Services, the territorial arm that runs the barges, has “had some discussions with mayors who are impacted to make sure that we’ve got an awareness of the needs and a plan to service them” if the Mackenzie’s water level remains low.

“Our hope,” she added, is that by sending 100 percent of the Sahtu’s required fuel for the year via the winter road, the territory will not need to spend large sums on emergency action if the barges fail.

“We’ll have to unfortunately wait and see what’s thrown at us,” she added.