A guide to the Arctic Economic & Security Corridor’s future

The Arctic Economic and Security Corridor – a road connecting a proposed deepwater port on Nunavut’s coast to the NWT and the south – is in the spotlight like never before.

In 2018, Ottawa declined to help fund the NWT half of this massive project. In 2020, the Yellowknives Dene First Nation temporarily withdrew its support.

Now, YKDFN and the Tłı̨chǫ Government have signed an agreement to advance the project together, Mark Carney’s Major Projects Office has placed it on a second-tier list of ideas that show promise, and suddenly this appears the most likely of the NWT government’s three-project wish list to advance any time soon.

On Tuesday, representatives of the Yellowknives Dene First Nation, Tłı̨chǫ Government, NWT government and West Kitikmeot Resources Corp (which is leading the Nunavut side) gathered at the Yellowknife Geoscience Forum to discuss its future.

Here are seven things they’re thinking about – ranging from caribou protection to the likelihood of all-out war – as they try to forecast what happens next.

1. Indigenous governments have teamed up

This project now includes YKDFN, the Tłı̨chǫ Government and the Kitikmeot Inuit Association (through West Kitikmeot Resources Corp) as backers, bringing together three northern Indigenous governments.

In the past, said YKDFN councillor Jeffrey Rosnawski on Tuesday, “we were never decision-makers” on big NWT projects like mines. With the agreement that Indigenous governments will lead the corridor project, that would change.

“When Indigenous governments are leading the planning, there is clarity on expectation, rights, cultural areas and environmental protections,” said Rosnawski. “Nation-building projects require trust, and trust is built through leadership that reflects the rights, history and future of the people most connected to the land.”

West Kitikmeot Resources Corp boss Brendan Bell said having Indigenous representation from across the territories “is the secret sauce to getting this advanced.”

2. There is federal money available

The latest federal budget included more money for the Canada Infrastructure Bank and a new $1-billion Arctic Infrastructure Fund.

Last week, NWT MP and Carney cabinet member Rebecca Alty said those sources of funding will get projects like the corridor “across the finish line.”

Caroline Wawzonek, the NWT’s minister of finance and big projects, says what Ottawa must provide now is clarity about what exactly the federal government will offer.

“When Indigenous governments become owners of these major infrastructure projects, they [need to] know from the get-go what is expected, what is their equity stake, and what’s going to be the return on investment,” said Wawzonek on Tuesday.

“That’s going to mean knowing where the federal government’s going to land … understanding what the federal component is going to be allows us, in turn, to go back to Indigenous governments – and our own government – and know what that funding stack looks like.”

3. Private cash will be needed, too

Alty said last week that big projects in the North also need private investment to work. On Tuesday, speakers at the geoscience forum agreed.

Governments need to know private-sector money is coming or “their projections simply won’t work,” said Bell.

He said YKDFN and the Tłı̨chǫ Government have “proven they’re prepared to step up and lead that cause” alongside leaders in the Kitikmeot.

Still, where that private cash is coming from and how much will be needed is not clear. And if a loan from the Canada Infrastructure Bank is part of the package, who’s repaying that loan and how?

Bell said he thinks the mining industry can increasingly pay the corridor’s way once it is built and helping companies reach areas of the North that they can’t currently access.

“We need some private-sector money. We are out appealing to would-be infrastructure investors, patriotic people, but they need to see the business case,” he said. “This isn’t a charity, right?”

4. It’ll “open up the region” economically

“I’ve heard complaints over the years that this is a road to nowhere. I disagree with that fundamentally,” said Wawzonek this week. “It connects the two territories and connects to the Grays Bay deepwater port. That starts to be tremendous value, northbound and southbound.”

To her, the corridor opens up an otherwise inaccessible land mass that could be producing mines and driving Canada’s economy. That’s the pitch she’s making to Ottawa.

“It’s going to open up this region and create an opportunity where projects in and around the Slave geological region can start to consider whether an access road makes sense,” she said, suggesting that tens of billions of dollars could be earned from a range of commodities with “the entire value chain inside Canada.”

5. But it’ll also open up land caribou call home

If built, the corridor is set to run through the range of the Bathurst caribou herd, which has already practically vanished.

Governments have gone on record saying the herd’s decline is concerning given all the efforts being made to save the animals. Critics say building a highway through the herd’s heartland will not help, and there are other herds who might suffer, too.

Is it possible to have a road corridor from the Arctic coast to southern Canada and still save the Bathurst herd?

Noting that the existing winter road has contributed to the decline in caribou, Rosnawski said it’ll be important to “analyze the data and implement strong mitigation measures to help protect caribou.”

“The caribou are sacred to us,” said Tłı̨chǫ Grand Chief Jackson Lafferty. “It’s a balancing act.”

Ultimately, governments involved may be forced to make hard decisions like prioritizing the economy at the expense of the caribou – or vice versa.

6. Could a war play a role here?

While Arctic sovereignty and defence spending have been big themes in NWT political discussions for the past year, Bell invoked the threat of war far more plainly than anyone else has to date.

“If this were a room today in Berlin or in Warsaw, and you asked for a show of hands about how many people think we might be in a kinetic war in a year, you’d see better than 50 percent of the hands,” said Bell. (A “kinetic war” is another term for direct, destructive warfare with the likes of bombs and missiles.)

“And our prime minister travels in those circles, visits those capitals,” Bell added. “Things may need to get sped up here if the worst happens and we end up really being on a war footing.”

Nobody else came close to suggesting that outright warfare would be a factor in getting the corridor built. Bell returned to the theme multiple times.

“An alarming map to look at is the security assets on the Russian side of the Arctic, as compared to the absolute void in North America,” he continued, suggesting that the corridor could support a continental ballistic missile defence system if Canada decides to install one.

“I think it feels inevitable. Maybe I’m wrong, I hope I’m wrong,” he said, “but let’s just make sure that the economy moves quickly and takes advantage of this opportunity.”

7. What will the timeline look like?

Bell thinks construction can begin on the Nunavut side of the project by 2030 in the right circumstances.

Lafferty struck a slightly more reserved note – he also took care to describe this week’s signing of a memorandum with YKDFN about the corridor as “very preliminary” – but reiterated that this project has been selected as a priority by the Tłı̨chǫ Assembly.

“I think we can move this project further along. 2030 might be optimistic,” he said, “but at the same time, it’s a project on the horizon of the federal government.”