What’s the NWT spring breakup assessment for 2026?

Low water levels, a heavy snowpack in southern areas and thick river ice are painting a mixed – but overall, normal – picture for coming spring melt in the NWT.

In a spring outlook published this week, territorial hydrologists suggested a combination of factors means spring flows are expected to be near normal for most communities.

“Generally speaking, lower spring flows reduce the potential for flooding, but they do not eliminate the risk,” territorial hydrologists stated in the outlook.

As usual, a lot depends on what happens next. Sustained downpours, rapidly warming temperatures and awkwardly placed ice jams can all increase flood risk even in otherwise innocuous circumstances.

The large amounts of snow waiting to enter basins that feed the Liard, Hay and Slave rivers could be good news in the longer term for the territory’s years-long drought.

Here’s a community-by-community breakdown, focusing on communities where there’s ordinarily some form of flood risk:

Hay River

Snowpack in the Hay River basin is measured at 119 percent of the norm, but water levels on the river are at their lowest on record in places.

Cooler than normal winter weather means the river ice is probably thicker than usual in some areas, which can make ice jams more likely.

Overall, the NWT’s Department of Environment and Climate Change says spring flows here are likely to be normal, depending on factors like rainfall and warm weather to come.

Dehcho

In general, there’s a higher-than-normal snowpack in the Liard River basin but water levels are much lower than normal on the Mackenzie, Liard and Petitot rivers.

That means “approximately normal” spring flows for Fort Liard, Jean Marie River and Fort Simpson.

In Nahanni Butte the flooding potential is listed as “average,” taking into account higher-than-usual water levels on the South Nahanni River, balanced out by much lower levels than normal on the Liard River.

Sahtu

Tulita and Fort Good Hope are ordinarily considered the two Sahtu communities susceptible to flooding.

For Tulita, the snowpack is about normal, water levels are much lower than normal and spring flows “may be lower than normal on the Great Bear River,” the GNWT stated. Approximately normal spring flows are possible on the Mackenzie River, depending on spring runoff farther upstream.

Fort Good Hope is also in the “approximately normal” category based on very low current water levels running past the community but a much higher than normal snowpack upstream.

Beaufort Delta

Fort McPherson and Aklavik are the two Beaufort Delta communities where flooding is considered an annual possibility.

Water levels on the Peel River are lower than normal and the snowpack is higher than normal. That earns Fort McPherson an “approximately normal” rating for its spring flows, again with a warning that conditions to come could change that.

For Aklavik, the GNWT looked at the much lower than normal Mackenzie River level upstream in Tsiigehtchic, adding similar conditions are expected across the Delta but ice conditions are blocking some sensors.

“While current low water levels and a higher than normal snowpack throughout much of the Mackenzie River basin suggest the potential for near-normal spring flows into the Delta, outcomes remain highly uncertain,” hydrologists wrote.

Yellowknife and Tłįchǫ region

Flooding isn’t generally a risk in these areas, but the spring outlook still provides some guidance for people out on the land.

“A lower than normal to approximately normal snowpack in the North Slave and Tłįchǫ Regions will still contribute some moisture to recharge the soil,” the outlook states.

“However, water levels on most local lakes and rivers are not expected to be significantly higher than in 2025, unless rainfall this summer is at or above normal levels.”

In general, warm and dry conditions have kept water levels low across most of the NWT since the late summer of 2022.

Water levels on the Mackenzie River, Great Slave Lake and Great Bear Lake remain much lower than normal.

Exceptions to the low-water-level rule include the South Nahanni, Taltson, Mountain, Lockhart and Hoarfrost rivers.

Check the full spring outlook for charts, region-by-region guidance in more detail, and explanations of relevant factors like ice jams.