Each year, the climate crisis costs the NWT much more than it planned. This year, the bill is about an extra $100 million. Some MLAs say the time has come to stop being surprised.
Unplanned expenses so far this financial year include $61 million more than was budgeted to fight wildfires. The GNWT division responsible for forest management had an initial budget of $66 million for 2026-27. It’s now expected to spend at least $127 million.
While the federal government has previously assisted the territory with some firefighting costs, documents setting out the overspend this week don’t include any suggestion of new funding from Ottawa. (By comparison, $3.75 million in extra spending elsewhere in the document – to help Fort Simpson and Wrigley with wildfire-related evacuations – comes with a note stating that cost is “partially offset” by federal disaster assistance cash.)
The GNWT is also spending an unplanned $34 million to “offset impacts of fuel prices and low water conditions.” That money will go to the NWT Power Corporation and covers the likes of extra diesel for backup power generators, since the North Slave’s hydro systems need more help when water levels are low.
The alternative to sending tens of millions of dollars to the power corporation would be charging ratepayers more, the territory says.
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Caroline Wawzonek, the NWT’s finance minister, told MLAs there had been “a return to unexpectedly and dramatically lower water conditions.”
Wawzonek said the territory faced the same situation just a couple of years ago. “The cycle is somewhere between nine and 10 years. Obviously, being back this quickly into projected low water is different than the historical patterns have been,” she said.
“Historical data feels like it’s out the window a lot these days,” responded Great Slave MLA Kate Reid.
Julian Morse, the MLA for Frame Lake, went further.
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“The minister used the term ‘unexpectedly low water.’ This is similar to the unexpected costs we started to see with wildfires. There comes a point where unexpected isn’t unexpected any more,” Morse said.
“I remember reading a study that was talking about how lower water levels are simply expected now, and probably will be for the foreseeable future. How are we planning for this, knowing that it seems to be much more than just an unexpected low and appears to be the new trend?”
Even if the GNWT isn’t budgeting for the full extent of current climate impacts, Wawzonek said there is work happening.
She broke that work into four categories, the largest and most ambitious being connecting the South Slave’s Taltson dam to the North Slave to provide redundancy – Taltson isn’t affected by low water right now. That major project is being considered by the federal government.
The minister said smaller hydro projects, like one proposed near Whatì Falls, would also help, as will work to use more renewables and battery systems. Lastly, she said the power corporation is upgrading existing plants to use “better storage systems and better integrate renewables.”
This week’s discussions are about the current year’s spending – the territory initially forecast a surplus but is now anticipating a deficit – and don’t involve shaping the next year’s budget.
On that front, the finance minister has already warned that the NWT is in a “difficult” transition period where its revenues from mining and oil have gone down but it’s expected to help invest in big projects and address major issues in health and education.
Setting out the situation to MLAs this week, Wawzonek gave no suggestion that climate-related spending will ease up any time soon.
“We are looking at another low winter” for hydro water levels in the North Slave, she said.
“As of September, cumulative inflows were about half of the historical median for that same period. Looking back over 40 years of historical records, it’s the second-lowest levels that have been experienced. So fairly dramatic, in that regard.”
