Is the NWT’s low water turning a corner?

Water levels across much of the Northwest Territories remain near record lows, but there are small signs in recent monitoring that things may be changing.

A multi-year drought covering not just parts of the territory but also large areas of British Columbia and Alberta is responsible for drying up stretches of some rivers and lowering Great Slave Lake.

Throughout 2024, Great Slave Lake water monitoring sites have reported the lowest levels on record for this time of year, as they did in 2023.

However, a monitoring bulletin issued by the NWT government late last week – even if it mostly documented the same situation – hinted at tiny shifts back toward normality.

Take Great Slave Lake as an example.

The lake, territorial hydrologists wrote, “remains at its lowest water level recorded for this time of year but has increased by 7 cm since early June.”

A graph of the water level in Yellowknife Bay demonstrates the smallest of upward ticks (dark blue), in contrast to last year’s near-relentless slide (light blue).

A graph for the lake’s water level outside Hay River shows much the same: a tiny upward movement this summer, in contrast to last year’s plunge.

Conditions are in no way normal – the dark grey band of an average year is still a yawning chasm away from the dark blue line of 2024 – but the gap has stopped growing and even narrowed a little.

“Water levels and flow rates remain very low across most of the NWT, but flow rates have started to slowly rise in July on some rivers,” the GNWT reported.

As examples, the Slave River, Lockhart River and Cameron River all report increased flow rates over the past month, though those remain below average for the time of year.

The Hay River’s flow rate is currently at its second-lowest value ever recorded – but 2023 was the lowest, meaning even that counts as an improvement.

In some places, the shift is a little more pronounced.

“Flow rates on the Liard River are responding to recent precipitation events and have increased to approximately average for this time of year,” the GNWT stated.

In others, nothing has really changed.

“Water levels on Great Bear Lake and Great Bear River are at or near their lowest recorded values for this time of year,” the bulletin continued.

“Flow rates at most locations along the Mackenzie River are well below average or at their lowest recorded values for this time of year.

“Water levels and flow rates in the Beaufort Delta region, including the Peel River, Arctic Red River, Mackenzie River East Channel (at Inuvik) and Main Channel are either below average or at their lowest recorded values for this time of year.”

Aside from Inuvik, most parts of the NWT have registered below-average precipitation this year. Yellowknife’s rainfall has been “very low relative to normal,” the bulletin reports.

But there might be a change on the horizon there, too.

Precipitation in the northern BC and Alberta regions that flow water into the Mackenzie River has been nearer to average this summer, while the GNWT says federal forecasters expect “above average” precipitation across much of the territory between August and October.